Federal Highway Administration launches study into causes of motorcycle crashes
Maverick - Nov 3, 2009

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), has finally begun an ambitious new study to better understand and prevent motorcycle crashes, according to Administrator Victor Mendez.  Good news or compromise?

Despite years of steadily improving highway safety and roadway fatalities at historic lows, motorcycle riders remain one of the highest-risk groups on America's roads. Nearly 5,300 motorcycle riders died in roadway crashes in 2008, accounting for 14 percent of all traffic fatalities, and 96,000 were injured. 

Between 1997 and 2008, motorcycle rider fatalities increased from 2,116 to 5,290 - a 150 percent jump, according to U.S. Department of Transportation's Fatality Analysis Reporting System.

"Having a better understanding of what causes these crashes will help us improve roadway safety for everyone," said Administrator Mendez."

Although downsized in scope due to limited funds, the motorcycle crash causation study will be the federal government's first major in-depth analysis of motorcycle safety in nearly three decades.  

At least one question about the Motorcycle Crash Causation research initiative remains unanswered. Will research design and process mandates set forth by the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Transportation Equity Act, a Legacy for Users (SAFTEA-LU), be achieved considering the current “abbreviated” scope; i.e., from the recommended 1200 to 300 crashes?

In 2005, Congress assigned $2.8 million dollars as an earmark in SAFTEA-LU, to conduct a motorcycle crash causation study. The federal earmark required dollar for dollar matching funds creating a minimum of $5.6 million minimum to conduct the research.

SAFTEA-LU further mandated that the Crash Causation Study use the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) methodology and appointed Oklahoma State University (OSU), to conduct the research. Also included in the law was a requirement for OSU to seek matching funds.

The motorcycle industry, through the Motorcycle Safety Foundation, pledged three million dollars with a few reasonable conditions, the primary condition being that an adequate number of cases would be collected so that the US study could be comparable to other international motorcycle studies and achieve a satisfactory level of statistical significance.

Following the passing of the law, the actual estimates to cover the entire expense came in at roughly eight to nine million dollars, meaning that the study was significantly under-funded.

In fact, Dr. Samir Ahmed (lead researcher on the study at Oklahoma State University), in January of 2008 stated in an interview with Cycle Matters that; “5.6 million dollars would be insufficient to fulfill the scope of the study as defined by SAFTEA-LU and motorcycle industry stakeholders.” He indicated it would cost upwards of 7 million to complete the study.

As of the publication of this article, Congress has not committed additional financial support.

In response to the FHWA announcement to launch the Crash Causation Study, the Motorcycle Safety Foundation issued a statement demonstrating clearly that stakeholders remain conflicted about the potential outcomes of an “abbreviated” motorcycle crash causation study continues to exist. The statement reads in part: 

The MSF, industry, and safety experts agree that the abbreviated Motorcycle Crash Causation Study by OSU is unlikely to either validate the findings of prior studies or establish, to any statistical significant level, any new causative factors. The abbreviated study is unlikely to accomplish either of these goals because the sample size is expected to be only 300 crashes, compared to the 900 crashes collected and analyzed in the Hurt Study, 921 in the MAID's Study (Europe 2000) and the 1,200 recommended by the National Transportation Safety Board.

Also, if the study was conducted as it was originally intended, it would achieve the goal of identifying, to a statistically significant level, the causation factors upon which countermeasures could be developed to reduce tragic loss of life and improve the safety of our fellow riders.

So, between 2005, when SAFTEA-LU was passed, and the launch of the study in October of this year, funding levels vacillated between $2.8 and $5.6 plus million dollars and scope of the project has been amended to 300 crashes from the 1,200 originally recommended by the National Transportation Safety Board. 

According to MSF, the motorcycle Industry's commitment of three million dollars exceeded the original matching funds requirement called for in SAFETEA-LU and the industry has not withdrawn its offer. But, with a limited sample size of approximately 300, we (MSF), believe the study will not provide sufficient statistical significance of the OECD identified study variables and the MSF Board of Trustees has determined that MSF must continue to make its commitment of funds contingent upon a sample size of at least 900 cases.

The Motorcycle Crash Causation Study is moving forward…

The Motorcycle Crash Causation Study was launched in early October in spite of stakeholder stalemate on issues having to do with research model. Perhaps due to pressure from government officials to return earmarked funds if the project continued to languish.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has completed a pilot study to develop the protocols for the full-scale causation research. Using these protocols, Oklahoma State University researchers will evaluate data from motorcycle crashes to help identify common factors - including road configurations, environmental conditions and rider experience. The study's focus is to look at how these factors may be affected by countermeasures that, if effectively implemented, will prevent motorcycle crashes or lessen the harm when they occur.

OSU’s associate dean for research in OSU’s College of Engineering, Architecture and Technology remains positive in spite of the fact that the scope of the study has been whittled down from the projected 900 to 300 crashes and $5.6 million to a current $3.1 million dollars. 

Dr. Alan Tree stated; "OSU is delighted to be the lead research institution for this important study." He went on to say; "We expect very significant, scientifically valid results to emerge from this work and look forward to a very positive final outcome."

Dr. Ahmed has initiated the administrative elements of the project, including a Project Working Group made up of representatives from: American Motorcyclist Association, MSF, ABATE, government entities, and contractors. He anticipates research will be completed and reported in four years or by 2013.